Bourse : AGR anticipe une croissance bénéficiaire à deux chiffres et une revalorisation des actions en 2026

The latest analysis from Attijari Global Research regarding the AGR-30 index suggests a period of sustained fundamental strength, as corporate earnings within the benchmark continue to demonstrate remarkable resilience. For the 2024 fiscal year, bottom-line growth has materialized at a robust 17.8 percent, a figure that aligns precisely with earlier market expectations and reinforces the prevailing bullish sentiment surrounding listed Moroccan equities. This momentum has prompted analysts to revise their forward-looking estimates upward, with profit growth projections for 2025 now standing at 12.4 percent—a significant increase from the initial forecast of 9.5 percent—followed by a projected expansion of 10.2 percent in 2026. This trajectory underscores a durable upward trend in the profitability of listed entities, signaling a healthy macroeconomic environment for institutional investors. A critical takeaway from the current reporting cycle is the clear evidence of margin expansion across the index. While revenue growth for the AGR-30 is expected to remain steady, with forecasts of 7.9 percent in 2024 and approximately 8 percent through 2026, profit growth is consistently outpacing these top-line figures. This divergence suggests that the current earnings cycle is being driven not merely by volume, but by enhanced operational efficiencies and cost optimization strategies that are yielding superior margins. Consequently, the quality of earnings appears to be improving, providing a more stable foundation for long-term capital appreciation. Furthermore, the composition of this growth is undergoing a significant structural transformation. While the banking sector has historically served as the primary engine of profit growth—accounting for 74 percent of the total increase in 2024—the market is moving toward a more balanced and diversified contribution profile. Between 2025 and 2026, the banking sector’s contribution to overall profit growth is expected to normalize at approximately 46 percent. This shift is being facilitated by a powerful resurgence in cyclical and defensive sectors, most notably mining, cement, construction, ports, and healthcare, which are collectively assuming a more prominent role in driving the index higher. The mining sector, in particular, is poised to enter a phase of exceptional performance, characterized by what analysts describe as superprofits. Driven by a favorable global backdrop of rising metal prices, the sector is anticipated to achieve a compounded annual growth rate of 55 percent between 2024 and 2026. In absolute terms, this represents a surge in earnings from 0.8 billion dirhams to 1.9 billion dirhams over the forecast period. Such a dramatic expansion highlights the sector’s high sensitivity to commodity cycles and its emerging role as a key alpha generator within the broader Moroccan equity market. From a valuation perspective, the sustainability of this earnings growth is expected to lead to a meaningful compression of market multiples. The recurring price-to-earnings ratio for the AGR-30 is projected to improve by 2.1 points, descending from 22.4x to a more attractive 20.3x by 2026. However, investors must remain cognizant of the pronounced valuation disparities that persist between different market segments. While the banking and telecommunications sectors offer relatively conservative valuations at 13.0x and 15.6x respectively, other listed sectors continue to command a significant premium, trading at a collective multiple of 32.7x, which reflects the market's high expectations for future growth in those specific industries.