The latest data released by the High Commission for Planning (HCP) regarding the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January 2026 reveals a nuanced inflationary environment characterized by diverging sector dynamics and regional disparities. On a year-over-year basis, the overarching downward pressure on the index is largely attributable to a significant 2.1% contraction in the food products index, which effectively offset a more modest 0.4% appreciation in non-food categories. Within the non-food segment, the economic landscape remains notably heterogeneous; for instance, a 2.9% reduction in transport costs provided a necessary counterweight to the 2.8% surge observed in the miscellaneous goods and services sector, reflecting a complex realignment of consumer costs.
Despite this broader annual cooling, the short-term trajectory shifted as the CPI recorded a 0.3% uptick in January 2026 compared to the preceding month of December. This monthly movement was fueled primarily by a 0.8% rise in the food products index, a spike that occurred even as the non-food sector experienced a marginal 0.1% decline. The primary catalysts for this monthly inflationary pulse were found in the seafood market, where prices for fish and shellfish experienced a substantial 10.4% hike. This was accompanied by a 2.7% increase in vegetable costs, while other essential commodities, including fruit and meat products, saw more temperate increases of 0.7% and 0.4% respectively. The stimulants category, comprising coffee, tea, and cocoa, also edged up by a modest 0.2%.
Conversely, certain segments provided significant relief to the household basket, tempering the impact of rising perishables. The oils and fats category saw a robust 3.1% decline, while dairy products—including milk, cheese, and eggs—experienced a slight contraction of 0.3%. Perhaps most critically for the broader economy and logistical overheads, fuel prices witnessed a sharp 5.9% reduction in January. This cooling in energy costs served as a vital stabilizer, preventing the modest monthly CPI increase from escalating into a more pronounced inflationary trend, thereby reflecting the continued influence of global commodity volatility on the Moroccan domestic market.
Geographically, the inflationary experience across the Kingdom remained uneven, highlighting localized supply chain pressures and varying demand profiles. Beni Mellal emerged as the primary outlier with a prominent 1.5% increase, while Settat and Al-Hoceima followed with more moderate gains of 0.7%. Major urban hubs, including Casablanca, Marrakech, and Agadir, mirrored the national trend with growth ranging from 0.3% to 0.5%. In stark contrast, certain regions enjoyed a deflationary environment, with Dakhla recording a 0.3% decrease and both Tangier and Fes seeing marginal price retreats.
From a strategic analytical standpoint, the core inflation indicator—which strips away the inherent volatility of fresh produce and the predictability of regulated public tariffs—offers a more tempered perspective on the Kingdom’s economic health. This metric remained stagnant on a month-over-month basis, yet it showcased a deeper 1.2% contraction relative to January of the previous year. This divergence suggests that while cyclical fluctuations in food and energy continue to dictate headline figures, the underlying inflationary pulse is softening. For investors and policymakers, these figures signal a period of structural price stabilization, even as seasonal supply shocks in the maritime and agricultural sectors necessitate ongoing market vigilance.
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Vendredi 20 Fevrier 2026